Bitcoin price continues decline as the crowd keeps selling. Bitfinex management, so eager to create an impression of recovery, are once again having their liquidity drained by a relentless sell-off, and this time they can’t cry “hack!”
Time of analysis: 13h00 UTC Sunday
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The conditions for decline had been stacking up during the past week. We have both the 4hr and 1hr charts’ MACD falling away below zero (magenta circle in the 4hr chart, above).
Traders at xbt.social had been advised to wait for price to break below the support that formed at $580 (Bitstamp). Mindful of the possibility of consolidation above this level, xbt.social had waited for the full combination of sell criteria:
1) price must decline below the recent support level at $580 (Bitstamp)
2) a 4hr MACD sell signal must herald the decline
3) the 1day chart MACD should capitulate by declining below its signal line and below its zero line
The xbt.social Sell Recommendation was fulfilled when all of the entry conditions listed above were fulfilled at 12h00 UTC on Sunday 14 August. While the signals are bearish across timeframes up to the 3day chart, xbt.social traders were advised not to risk more than a half-size position due to the risk of a ferocious reversal from the bottom.
Despite clear technical chart indications, it took a while for the market to accept the reality of a resumption of decline. Once price had established below $580 (Bitstamp) the decline gathered momentum and $600 slipped out of reach.
Price is expected to drop into the area of the two arrows in the chart: firstly, $550 with potential for a correction at the 2.618 Fib extension, and then the inescapable half-way target at $500.
Of course, the market is fixated on double that amount: $1,000 BTC/USD. But the level remains a mythical target that lives on in our dreams as a Great Beyond. Ironically, if and when this emotional market collective conquers $680, it will quickly find itself at a Fibonacci $1,680.
Bitcoin is in decline as the bumbling Bitfinex becomes the ecosystem’s new Mt.Gox. Lot’s of unexplained fumblings and shenanigans remain unexplained and their revelation could lead to some news-event shocks. Traders should aim for $500 as a potential reversal level. Hopefully, but for now only potentially.
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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Last modified: August 15, 2016 15:12 UTC