Bitcoin price continues labored decline. Optimistic buying intermittently pulls price to lower highs while the technical indications in favor of additional decline are compounding.
Time of analysis: 14h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, posted at 04h00:
The most recent lower high had formed reverse divergence in RSI (magenta annotation), and we can expect another wave down today.
The structure of the declining price action is complex – not the single long red candle variety that we’re accustomed to seeing – and this implies one of two things: Either the decline is corrective and another wave toward the resistance ceiling will follow, or this is the beginning wave of a large decline (and hence the observed complexity). The moving average signaling at both the 1hr and 4hr (not shown) timeframes implies that price is rolling over into decline, and our currently active xbt.social trade recommendation is based on this outcome.
There are still many buyers piling in at each new low, no doubt expecting a return to advance. Once the reality of decline grips the market there will be additional opportunities to increase position size, so traders should keep their short position small (approx. quarter size) for now. Buy-and-hold allocation should be approx. 35:65 (BTC vs fiat) at this time.
If a new advancing wave should commence, before price breaks below critical support at the up-sloping Fib line currently running through $416 (Bitstamp), then a smaller position will be easier to manage and exit. Always a good idea to build your positions as confirmation of trend strengthens, rather than make all-or-nothing directional bets.
Bitcoin price decline continues with effort. For now we observe the price reaction at the 1hr 200MA (blue circle). The next reaction level is the up-sloping support line. If price breaks below this line, then the primary target is $404 (at the purple circle) and a secondary target at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (orange arrow) at $390 (Bitstamp).
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Last modified (UTC): March 2, 2016 17:29