Bitcoin Price Decline Incomplete

August 9, 2015 20:08 UTC

Bitcoin price was pulled lower today and began a corrective advance that has now paused. Analysis shows that at least one more small wave of decline can be expected.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis

Time of analysis: 16h24 UTC

Bitfinex 4-Hour Chart

From the analysis pages of, earlier today:

Our short trade was closed on the last green candle in this 4-hour chart view.

The question of what level the decline is targeting becomes relevant and will influence our decision to take another short trade to the next wave low. A wave count offers a preferred count as ABC and an alternate count of 12345.

RSI (second from top) is reverse diverged to the start of the entire wave up, but it lacks a final instance of divergence to the downside.

Divergence is flashing blue in the stochastics (top), and strong reverse divergence shows in the MACD indicator (bottom). These indications imply the present wave is nearing completion and it may continue correcting into Monday at current levels before embarking on the last subwave down, or a short fifth wave may punch lower today and see a reversal to the upside.

Whichever of the two wave counts ends up printing in the chart, the current wave that started at label b/ii is incomplete. A final fifth wave is outstanding and could target the purple 800MA near $252. What price does when it reverses from that low, and the configuration of the moving averages, will give us clues as to the larger decline’s state of completion.

No profession requires more hard work, intelligence, patience, and mental discipline than successful speculation. – Robert Rhea


The previous failure to get back above $300 has resulted in a larger decline. The question of how deep the market is willing to sell this downtrend remains open, but for now analysis indicates that a target near $250 is probable, where the market could then take a break from selling and possibly push higher in the chart.

Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:

Click here for the CCN.LA interactive price chart.

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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.

Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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Last modified: August 13, 2015 13:28 UTC


Market analyst and Open source developer with a keen interest in blockchain technology, consensus mechanisms and the decentralizing effect. He has found a solution to the PKI mechanism. Email me to discuss.