Bitcoin price is being traded lower in small price steps as buyers eagerly take advantage of new lows, and profit takers fill in the ending of the current wave of decline. After another correction we could see an additional wave of decline. Will it be foreshortened by buying demand or catastrophic due to mass participation?
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Additional downside seems certain but we don’t know down to where. Horizontal support levels in proximity to our existing price targets have been annotated in the chart as horizontal grey lines. From top-to-bottom they are: $210, $193 and $166.
A magenta circle has been drawn around a similarly structured previous wave of decline. According to the face value of such a wave count, we are currently in wave 3 to the downside and it should make a low nearer $213 or $200. Following its completion a larger upward correction should occur and this may be a suitable entry for us to catch the last wave of decline, wave 5, for a trade with a potential distance of $20-$30.
This is forecasting of a specific scenario – something else may transpire. Notice that the indicators in the 4-hour chart are oversold and diverging. On continued decline, RSI will soon reverse diverge to prior price lows that the current price is nowhere near. This chart event should see either reversal to the upside or, at least, a strong upward corrective wave. If we can pinpoint the upward wave to be corrective then we have a trade opportunity when price turns back down to complete wave 5.
Refrain from trading for the time being. It is very tempting to try and get in on the downside, but the outcome is not guaranteed to be profitable with the indicators already oversold and the buyers piling in quickly after each new low.
Bitcoin price is being traded lower in tedious downside. Short-sellers are participating but the declining progress is slow and prone to frequent profit taking. Additionally, discount buying is filling in on each new low. Continued selling should see decline approach a support level near $210 and 1330 CNY. Below that the $200 psych level may not hold and open the way for decline to targets at $193 / 1180 CNY and $166 / 900 CNY.
The Bitfinex depthchart shows buying support increasing at $210.
What do readers think? Please comment below.
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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.
Last modified: July 12, 2015 18:50 UTC