The bitcoin price charts are not giving uniform indications for all exchanges and the divergence is a signal that investors in different localities have different expectations for trend. The charts are equally weighted toward both advance and continued decline. Analysis identifies a critical level that will signal the medium-term direction of trend.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Time of analysis: 05h24 UTC
BTC-China 1-Hour Chart
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Price is both above and below the 1hr 200MA in different exchange charts.
In the 1-hour BTC-China chart we see price trading above the red 200MA. This is also the case in the Huobi CNY chart, as well as some OKCoin USD futures charts. BTC-e, Bitstamp and Bitfinex are trading below their 1-hour 200MA.
As highlighted in the chart, above, price may well give up its position and resume decline below the 200MA. We have a trade recommendation prepared for this scenario, so we simply await the moving averages sell signal.
796.com, in the past hour, had declined strongly below its 200MA but it is uncertain whether that is a sign of things to come in the other exchanges or if it is just a result of the low liquidity in that futures exchange's orderbook.
As the second circled instance in the chart above shows we could also see consolidation into an advance - provided the USD exchanges attain position above the 1-hour 200MA and then consolidate a base wave. The approximate location of an MA buy signal into advance is indicated with an arrow.
Bitcoin Price Analysis Update
Time of analysis: 15h00 UTC
Bitfinex 1-Hour Chart
This post is a supplement to today's initial analysis post, above.
The market is holding the line and there has been no real progress in the chart. BTC-e, Bitstamp and Bitfinex are still trading below their 1-hour 200MA (red) while BTC-China, Huobi and some of the futures charts maintain position above this critical moving average.
Unless price drops away under a strong sell signal, failure to make new lows might be a sign that the market is consolidating into an advance. As had been pointed out earlier in the week, the wave pattern since last Saturday's low appears to be corrective, hence upside should be a corrective advance to be followed by decline. The potential target is shown by the horizontal support (grey) in the chart at the top of the page.
The two most powerful warriors are patience and time. - Leo Tolstoy
If price can attain position above the 1-hour 200-period moving average (red) across exchange charts, then we have a confirmation that another wave of advance is underway. If the CNY and futures charts relinquish their position above the 200MA, this weekend, then decline to $250, 1550 CNY, and perhaps lower is the outlook.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
What do readers think? Please comment below.
Readers can follow Bitcoin price analysis updates every day on CCN.LA. A Global Economic Outlook report is published every Monday.
The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.
Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Image from Shutterstock.