Bitcoin price has spent another day in the vicinity of its consolidation pivot level of $640 (Bitstamp). Consolidation leads to break-out, but traders are advised to mind the possibility of a fake-out.
Time of analysis: 13h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The horizontal magenta line shows the $640 (Bitstamp) level around which price has been oscillating for the past two weeks. Any move below is quickly bought back up to $640 and any advance above, eventually returned to this level. Even the downward spike, a few blocks before the halving event, had targeted $640 – overshot and snapped back to it.
At the time of writing, price is just $640, below its 1hr 200MA (red) and, according to the stochastics (top), still declining. A look at the MACD indicator shows Bollinger Band compression and reveals the consolidating dynamic of price action.
That consolidation is the game is clear. A break to the upside should first clear the blue resistance layer before we can confidently risk a trade toward the previous high. If consolidation breaks to the downside… well, that will be a surprise. The opportunity of such a declining move is a chance to buy cheaper coins, and potentially a profitable short trade below $600.
Due to the technical conclusion that price is consolidating, xbt.social currently has pending Sell trade recommendation since we have no reason to believe that a move down from the consolidation level will not snap back to it, or reverse straight into advance. Hence, we would only trade to the downside if we see price hold a level lower in the chart, and when we see an xbt.social sell signal develop from there. Make sense?
Bitcoin price remains in consolidation through the block reward halving event. MACD compression and a two-week long oscillation around $640 confirms an eventual breakout from this level. The assumption (and hope) is that breakout will be into a glorious rally. Advance beyond $680 and the upside resistance zone (blue layer) will confirm this outcome. Conversely, a downside break and a scenario of continuing decline cannot be ruled out. However, traders should be cautious of trading to the downside until price action confirms that the market has escaped the magnetic pull of $640.
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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