Bitcoin price is simmering just above $670 as the market waits for the Bitcoin network starter gun. Where to and what may happen in the chart before the block reward actually halves?
Time of analysis: 14h30 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The market-wide expectation generally seems to be that price will advance into, at, or after the block reward halving event. Advancing too soon may force a correction near the previous top. Advancing too late risks a nervous sell-off.
Price may draw lower (toward $650 Bitstamp) as the consolidation progresses and the charts may become bearish with sell signals apparently forming as the moment of surge approaches. xbt.social has prepared a sell recommendation with trade parameter for the case where sell-off grips the market and price simply plunges below $650. However, the outlook in this write-up focuses on the outcome of a surging rally.
There is general anxiety in global markets following the unexpected Brexit vote and we see stocks creeping lower while gold pushes closer to $1,400. Despite a quantitative easing program of historic proportions the (central) Bank of Japan just cannot keep the yen down. The US dollar bucks and rears for a rally. If these trends continue it will be the perfect set of circumstances for bitcoin price to surge, and the block reward halving is the event that will catalyze market participants into buying.
Traders should wait for price to advance beyond $685, thereby, clearing this important resistance level (pink layer) convincingly. The initial upside target looks to $750 (green arrow), with $800 as the next call.
The sense that price will advance in the coming week has become an assumption and this scenario is discussed above. Assumption is often disappointed – especially in the market – and traders should watch for a breach of the 1hr 200MA (red curve) followed by a breach of $650 (Bitstamp). As discussed yesterday this series of events will open $600 as a target. If the upside scenario unfolds, with only consolidation to $650, then a large surge should take price to the previous high ($750) and then to $800 and beyond during the coming weeks.
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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