While the sideways consolidation rattles on, the Bitcoin price chart is starting to display the daily pattern of consolidate-then-drop that characterized December / January trade. Negative social mood abounds, and with it, the appetite for selling increases.
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The sideways consolidation is journeying east with a jittery cup of tea in one hand while the other carefully navigates a Zimmer frame across the rocky terrain… ostensibly towards a cliff.
A wave count charts the price waves. If this is a five wave decline then we have wave iii of 3 at the MACD extreme (circled in magenta) and wave v of 3 (and wave 3 thereby completed) at the second lowest peak. This is the signature of a third wave that always registers the most extreme MACD value within the larger wave due to the momentum generated by mass participation and the associated volume.
Wave 4 is not up for debate (unless that’s a B wave – but outside the scope of this count). The present impulsive wave down is, therefore, the fifth wave down, but it is structurally odd because of the number of waves being formed – it should be complete and should have been followed by a strong surge up. Failure to reverse from a bottom means additional decline is still due. Two counts extrapolate the possible progression. The black count has price still in wave iii of 5, whereas the red count has wave 5 almost complete. Either way, $210 is going to receive a visit from Wile E. Coyote and $200 may see him too.
There is another count being promoted by [xbt.social member “L”], who has price only completing wave iii of 3 at this time.
What creates the Bitcoin trading jeopardy is that, if we could be certain that price was going to $166 and 900 CNY, opening a short position from the end of wave 4 – that should come up from below, terminate at current levels and then drop almost $60 into what lies beneath – would be a great trade and an audacious gesture to see out the decline. Hence, the jeopardy: slide over the edge and commit to the drop, but how do we know what kind and size of creatures are lurking in the depths below? At what level do they begin their accumulation?
True life story:
Bitfinex depthchart – are those buy orders to buy, or buy orders to take part-profit on large short positions?
What do readers think? Please comment below.
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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.
Last modified: July 12, 2015 18:51 UTC