Bitcoin price is caught in a market-wide down-draft and has fallen through the boards of a once promising channel of advance. It looks like we’re heading back to the consolidation support floor and, then, back to the trade planning drawing board.
Time of analysis: 14h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Price continues being drawn lower amidst a global commodities slump as gold, oil and many other commodities turn to the downside. Meanwhile stocks and the US dollar are re-approaching their highs of earlier this year.
The 1hr chart does not have an explicit, confirmed sell signal for the current decline. Additionally, the 4hr chart is still several candles away from forming the bearish cross-over we watch for at xbt.social. Hence we assume that the present downdraft is part of the ongoing consolidation.
Price should find support near $650 or $640 from where we would then expect to see a buy signal form and for advance to begin. In the BTC/CNY charts, the channel illustrated in yesterday’s analysis (and in blue in the chart above) was breached to the downside earlier today, which means that price is likely to dip below the 1hr 200MA red across exchanges and brings the lower range of the consolidation zone ($640 Bitstamp) back into focus.
The current declining wave may not be the last, yet resist the temptation to trade short without a confirmed signal. If there is a large decline starting, then we will get signals for the bulk of the move – IF they signal downward continuation below $640.
Bitcoin price is sold lower on a down-day for commodities. Today’s declining wave may look exaggerated in comparison with the smaller scratchy waves of the past few weeks, so avoid emotional reaction and its inevitable outcome of causing traders to sell at the bottom of a price move. Trading decisions should be mechanistic and based on recurring technical criteria – this is the method taught at xbt.social. Wait for price to test the lower branches of the consolidation zone ($640-$650 Bitstamp) and then look for technical clues for the next phase of trend. Once determined, and if price capitulates, only then open positions.
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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