Bitcoin price has been trading sideways for days, and the question on traders' minds was: "To which side will price break out?". xbt.social analysis has been making a case for the upside.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
BTC-China 1-Day Chart
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The daily BTC-China chart has support and resistance levels drawn in grey. The path of the 200-day moving average has been projected forward in time by visual estimation.
Magenta annotations highlight reverse divergence between price and the indicators. The RSI indicator has a red dot indicating reverse divergence to price lows of early February this year. MACD and the slowest stochastic are only reverse diverged to the lows of late February but reverse diverged, none the less. Should price decline to any of the support levels below, i.e. $240/1400 CNY or $210/1300 CNY, then the MACD and stochastic reverse divergence would reach critical levels and force reversal to the upside. Magenta lines in MACD and the stochastics illustrate this scenario.
However, the reverse divergence already present in all the indicators may be sufficient to see a move to the upside. RSI certainly doesn’t look like it will tolerate additional downside and our discussions about the current consolidative structure near $260 and 1600 CNY strengthens the expectation of a move higher.
We know that the overhead resistance near $300 and 1900 CNY is tough. Price may revisit it and break through, but it is also possible that the resistance does not allow price through until price can use the daily 200MA as a support to ride above $300 / 1900 CNY. According to the projected path of the 200MA, this will only become an option in late April or May.
In the meantime, we may, therefore, see ranging price action between 1400 – 1800 CNY / $240 – $295. Whether price will decline to lower support remains to be seen.
The 3 waves down from $300 / 1900 CNY count ABC at the moment. Putting all the perspectives together we would now expect to see another ABC to the upper area of price range and then an ABC back down to current levels, followed by the five waves out of this area in May. A highly speculative view with not much evidence other than the support & resistance in the chart and the critical failure, last week, to push above $300 / 1900 CNY to the daily 200MA.
Bitcoin price has made an upside break-out after consolidating for days. The consolidation level was around $260 (Bitfinex) and 1600 CNY (BTC-China). The time spent in consolidation had been longer than most traders expected, and reached terminal compression around 15h15 UTC today. The first target of advance is at $275 and 1700 CNY.
Bitfinex orderbook depth had a batch of buy orders waiting for dips in price.
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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.