Bitcoin price declined to $240 (Bitfinex) and 1500 CNY (BTC-China) where it found support at its reliable 200-period moving average. A bounce higher is underway and analysis looks for its target and outcome. This analysis is provided by xbt.social with a 3 hour delay. Read…
Bitcoin price declined to $240 (Bitfinex) and 1500 CNY (BTC-China) where it found support at its reliable 200-period moving average. A bounce higher is underway and analysis looks for its target and outcome.
Time of analysis: 05h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, written 05h00 UTC, prior to the current advancing wave:
In the 1-hour Bitstamp chart, above, price has declined to the 200-period moving average at $240 (Bitfinex) and 1500 CNY (BTC-China), as anticipated in the past two days’ analysis.
The decline candle close is a marginal new low and there is no accompanying divergence in any of the indicators (illustrated in magenta on MACD, bottom of chart). The absence of divergence implies decline can continue unhindered. However, all indicators are at oversold troughs in their range and the reverse divergence at the 4-hour timeframe has compounded. Given these conditions we’d expect an upward reaction in price – perhaps to the level of the descending 1hr 20MA around $245-$247.
Once price has attained this level and the indicators give signals implying a turn back down, it may be time to take a short trade. Below the 200MA there are targets at $234 (1hr 800MA and 1.618 Fib extension), $230 (a magnetic line target, courtesy of KiwiOz’s method) and $222 (2.618 Fib extension).
Be aggressive in a trending market and conservative in a choppy market. – Vadym Graifer
This is the state of the leaderboard at the start of the bounce from the 200MA.
imas has taken the lead from ryo while he was waiting for confirmation of further decline, thereby, failed to position aggressively short. This is not a mistake on ryo‘s part, since there was a very real possibility that price would turn higher from the $247 level: price action started zigzagging – as if at a wave ending – and RSI was indicating reverse divergence to the previous day’s corrective low (see chart above). Sensible decision to hold back at that juncture and there is still time to hit the market with a profit stick before the competition ends.
hackedprogrammer and kaymuddin hold their relative positions with zaenal close behind.
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The price chart has thrown the market a bone, and the hope that this is the start of the Big One is on most speculators’ minds. When Bitcoin takes direction it is certainly a sight to behold and an adrenalized experience. The fact that we are in the transition of a year-long decline into advance means that we can reasonably expect these small exuberant rallies. They should become more frequent and strike higher into the price chart, but most likely, each time followed by a drawn out correction.
All things remaining equal, next week will see the renegade Bitcoin XT fork by Mike Hearn and Gavin Andresen. There is no empirical evidence that Bitcoin’s blocksize will be too small any time soon, so questions about their true motive for creating Mike&GavCoin remain unanswered. Here is xbt.social membership consensus on the fiasco:
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
What do readers think? Please comment below.
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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.
Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Image from Shutterstock.
Last modified: January 25, 2020 11:05 PM UTC