Bitcoin price teeters on the edge of a precipice like Wily E. Coyote holding onto an anvil. The roadrunner is further up the road at $680. Beyond lies the promised land of bitcoin price $2000. FOMC night is here again.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Time of analysis: 13h00 UTC
OKCoin 3-Month Futures 4-Hour Candle Chart
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
While the 1day and 3day charts remain in a bearish state, we anticipate decline.
The 4hr candle chart MACD remains below zero (magenta circle) and RSI keeps reverse diverging from price (blue annotations), which is vanilla flavor bearish in anyone’s TA textbook. The proposal is that the market is denying decline with irrational psychology, but without institutional (whale) support. Hence, a sideways corrective pattern may form (magenta trendlines) until the sell-off below $640 kicks in.
$640 is a critical pivot: while price remains above it there is every chance that the largest players can hold price above this level until, eventually, initiating an advance. There are many previous examples in the charts where the whales had enforced a horizontal support level and stunted decline, despite a bearish market. Our xbt.social method dictates that we sell, but we’ll follow the whales and only fully commit if they concede decline below $640.
Today at 19h00 UTC there will be a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement regarding US rates. Hence the sideways “holding pattern” mentioned above. Wider market consensus is that the Fed will not raise rates and may only do so in December 2016 after the US election.
However, two factors to consider:
1) The market often uses news events (regardless of content) as catalysts for action.
2) The Fed has (arguably, but) consistently done the wrong thing at the time since its inception.
So, there is no specific expectation from the FOMC meeting today, other than to be weary in the market during the hours surrounding 19h00 UTC.
Bitcoin price remains under a bad moon. Swirling tea-leaves have settled in the strange shape of a coyote-bear. Khaosan’s crystal ball rolled over-board that tragic summer’s day and, now, all he can see is the chart technicals and the global economic calendar bringing matters to a head in the coming hours. Below $640 lies $600. Below $600 is the previous corrective low at $560. If the market can hit that low, we may look to the skies and bitcoin $2000.
Bitfinex Depth Chart and Buy/Sell Volume
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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