2014 has not proven to be a good year for the Bitcoin price and the people who started the year looking to increase their capital gains by holding Bitcoin. Before the Mt.Gox meltdown, prices were above $1000 and still looking to rise. The morale was high, and Bitcoin holders were happier than ever; all the way to the bank.
Then the infamous crash happened, and the price saw an immediate tumble downwards. It recovered slightly into the $600 range, although the hearts of those that lost may not have fully healed, but has been in a steady, disparaging decline. The price dipped below $400 yesterday, and the decline will continue until the bitcoin userbase decides to start investing again.
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One of the biggest problems with a downward market is that everyone is looking for the bottom. Normally that’s not a difficult task; if the price has been at a steady range with a few ups and a few downs, then it’s probably a good call to buy some bitcoins and wait for a decent rise. The unfortunate part about the current market is that there hasn’t been a landing pad where the price fluctuates each way in weeks. It’s been down, down, down with no indication of stopping.
As the prices go down, it shakes more and more investors off on the way. These investors get out when they feel comfortable, because the price looks to continue to fall. Once the price hits the bottom, they’ll do their best to catch it a reinvest. These investors place sell orders on the markets, causing the price to continue to fall. As the price continues to fall, it shakes off more investors, who place more sell orders, continuing the current cycle traders are facing today.
Bitcoin “whales” are also always looking to ride the wave down to the bottom to get cheap coins as well. There’s no distinct proof of this besides buy walls and sell walls frequently showing up on the exchanges, but there’s enough market manipulation taking place daily to infer that it’s a golden opportunity for the whales.
When Will It End?
The question on everyone’s mind is when will the downward trend end? Unfortunately, there’s no end in sight. The market has shown that good news barely moves the trend, even with announcements from PayPal, DISH, and Overstock all putting Bitcoin in a positive light. The market responds the way investors respond, and a lot of investors are getting shaken off due to low morale.
One of the only ways the beatings will end is if new money comes in, from new or old Bitcoiners. With the downward trend being as predictable as it is proven, investors aren’t sure when the opportune time to invest will be. Newcomers think that the price could go down to $300, or even $200, but if it did it at a steady decline, as the past pattern has shown, then investors still wouldn’t see it as an opportunity to invest. They’d see the price continue to fall, and assume it will go even further.
The bitcoin price seems stuck in a cycle that can only be broken by natural movement. At this point, everyone will have to wait to see how it plays out. The trend is still leaning toward the downward spiral, but as everyone in Bitcoin knows, that could change in an instant. Once morale improves, the whales will signal a bottom and the price will rise from it quickly.
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