Bitcoin price is progressively creeping lower into compounding reverse divergence. Market sellers have been attempting to pull price below $221 and 1375 CNY all day without success.
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Similar cases of reverse divergence have been highlighted in magenta in the RSI indicator. Another similarity between each of the instances is that price falls below the green 20MA in each case.
As can be seen on 23 March and on 6 April, the reverse divergence required a correction to the upside before making a large drop. Conversely, around 27 March, similar MA and RSI conditions are seen but price does not make a significant drop and reverses.
The market has been fighting a support level for several hours as evidenced by the repeated attempts at $221 and 1375 CNY. It could turn out that the persistence pays off but a move higher may be required first. The $213 price level represents much stronger support than the level currently being attempted, so reaction is expected at this level – if the market can achieve it.
If the market turns to a sell-off once the current support gives way, then we may see rapid decline to $200, $193 or $166, but this is cannot be the basis of a trade, so we have no choice but to fore-go downside if the chart does not emit a clear sell signal. And, yet, decline to the $213 target has been the topic of analysis for a few weeks and has still not materialized. Could be that the instance of reversal around 27 March (highlighted in the chart above) recurs here if the sellers fail to achieve decline to a new low.
Every worthwhile accomplishment, big or little, has its stages of drudgery and triumph; a beginning, a struggle and a victory. – Ghandi
As seen in the Bitfinex chart published during the past two weeks, there are multiple targets that overlap near $210-$13 and price is likely to react with a bounce at this level. It is difficult to anticipate where price will drop to in this decline: It may reverse imminently or it may hit near this year’s lows on a surprise sell-off. The orderbooks indicate the prevailing mood, but the sellers have been unable to consistently pull price lower.
A centralized blunder over at OKcoin during futures settlement:
Bitfinex orderbook depth and volunme shows selling is now the fashion and sellers have stacked up orders all the way to $240.
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Last modified (UTC): July 12, 2015 18:51