Bitcoin price continued advancing through today and has reached a resistance layer dating back to 2013 at $680. Will the market progress beyond this strong barrier?
Time of analysis: 14h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Bitcoin price is currently grappling with the $680 support and resistance level in the popular BTC/USD charts of Bitstamp, Bitfinex, OKCoin and Coinbase. This may be the scene of either a correction or reversal, although the ascending wave structure implies at most a correction followed by upward continuation.
The charts gave xbt.social buy signals, almost simultaneously, at the 15min, 1hr and 4hr timeframes. Upon rising from $630 (Bitstamp) the signals were clear and prompted xbt.social traders to open larger than usual buy positions. Aside from the specific xbt.social signals, similar but less vivid indications can be seen in 15min and 1hr MACD crossing above both its signal and zero line.
1hr RSI seems to have found support at its 50 level, while price made higher highs and higher lows. Any RSI dip below 50 is likely to cause reverse divergence to price and crank price higher. This may be the dynamic that propels price through $680.
In contrast the angle of descent of the stochastics warns that we might see a larger correction below $680. The correction could retrace a large portion of advance but is unlikely to be a reversal, for the reasons outlined above.
Reasonably we could, therefore, expect the larger price wave to target the 1.618 Fib extension of the largest base wave. This target is at $755 in the Bitstamp reference chart. To get there price must cross back above the 1-day 20MA, thereby, transforming the bias of this large timeframe to bullish. The implication may be an ongoing rally beyond the June high.
However, let’s not count our chickens before they’ve hatched. For now, we have the immediate prospect that price must be traded through $680 resistance, and then advance through $700 and $725 (red arrow).
A strong buy signal emitted in the 1hr and 4hr charts yesterday has driven price to the $680 support and resistance level. Additional advance is expected and traders will see its confirmation when the market both opens and closes a 4hr candle above $680. Subsequent targets include $700 and $725. If price falls away from $680, we may first revisit $650 before attempting the resistance level again.
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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Last modified (UTC): July 1, 2016 17:23