Bitcoin price has advanced in the familiar base-surge pattern to the descending trendline that has capped the past few months’ downtrend. During the early hours of Saturday, Roger Ver accused OKCoin of dishonesty. We take a look at how the market may negotiate the challenge.
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Futures charts have already attempted the level for the second time in hours, and BTC-e initially spiked above it and is currently slightly above this significant overhead resistance level.
Bitfinex (above), Bitstamp and BTC-China have yet to convincingly establish trade above the trendline. The indicators are becoming overbought. Three scenarios seem most likely:
1. Price pushes above the resistance level at $243 (Bitfinex) and then consolidates on top of it before moving higher.
2. Price pushes above the trendline and immediately pushes higher despite severe indicator divergence. A surge is likely, in this case, and the upside targets will include the previous local high near $249 / 1540 CNY, and all the way up to an existing support & resistance zone near $260 / 1600 CNY.
3. Price does not breach the trendline and reverses back down in a new corrective wave. This scenario outlook is for ongoing medium-term consolidation.
A break above the trendline is a significant chart event. In the logarithmic chart, the trendline has capped price since August 2014 and has, during the period, resisted 4 attempts to break above it. Today’s attempt is the fifth.
Fijibound keeps holding onto that cash position as the rest of the field slowly encroach on his lead. Rahul jumps into 7th place, no doubt, with a well-timed long position opened during the past few days. Nixian also opts for cash as the correction unfolds.
The trading decisions made this weekend are likely to determine the competition outcome. Just over 7 days remain in this round, and the market is at a juncture that could see a strong move and a potential rearrangement of the leaderboard. Correctly anticipating the next move is going to be crucial for CoinCompetition participants.
What you will be looking for is a day that closes above the prior day’s high and most likely ‘breaks’ out to the upside to close above a trading range. This is the twitching worm that causes the public to leap before they look. – Larry Williams
Never a dull moment in the Bitcoin market. Even yesterday’s article headline “Glum” quickly proved irrelevant as price persistently advanced on the current resistance trendline. Getting above this trendline could see an explosive rally. But first, the market must show that it has the conviction to leave the consolidation zone below $250.
Bitfinex orderbook depth shows there are profit-takers with eyes on $245 and $250:
What do readers think? Please comment below.
Readers can follow Bitcoin price analysis updates every day on CCN.
The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.
Last modified (UTC): July 12, 2015 19:15