Bitcoin price eeks it out in a narrow range. Some lows, some highs but none of them to a new extreme. The eventual direction of trend remains unclear.
Time of analysis: 14h30 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Vigorous upside, today, is approaching an overhead resistance zone that has held back advance since late 2015.
Although the latest advance is overbought and diverging, the push higher may have another upside wave in store. Bear in mind that it is not the right moment to bet long just yet. We want to see price establish above the long-term resistance near $432 (Bitstamp) before we consider a buy position.
Both the 4-hour (not shown) and 1-hour chart (above) have their stochastics grouped at maximum and flashing red divergence signals. Similarly, both charts’, MACD has reached its upper Bollinger Band.
1-hour RSI is diverging to a previous price high (magenta annotation), while another push higher will cause RSI to reverse diverge from a previous price high (blue arrow). The 4-hour chart’s RSI should show the same reverse divergence to the same price peak.
Our tipping points remain at $432 and $406 in the Bitstamp chart. There is a lot of energy in the current push higher, so it may continue to $432 after a downward correction. Let’s wait for a breach of $432 (approx. $8 above the current price level) for confirmation.
The alternative scenario is that price reverses at or below $432 and returns to the vicinity of $420 and continues the sideways consolidation. Even though the scenario of a larger decline is out of focus, for now, it cannot be ruled out until we see price above long-term resistance.
What do readers think? Please comment below.
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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Last modified (UTC): April 12, 2016 18:05