Bitcoin Price Approaching Another Watershed

April 28, 2015 21:24 UTC

The small energetic bitcoin price wave that developed in yesterday’s chart was retraced today. As price approaches a long-term trendline from December 2013, xbt.social members discuss how to handle the subsequent trend direction.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis


Time of analysis: 11h21 UTC

Bitfinex 1-Day Chart

Why The Preference For BTC-China Charts In Analysis?

From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:

A daily Bitfinex chart serves to illustrate the current Bitcoin price landscape:

1) The market has failed to make additional lows after weeks of trying. The support floor is close, but untouched. It may still be attempted – and struck – but how long do we wait?

2) Price is advancing strongly and will soon breach an upside Fibline, and a long-term declining trendline that has capped decline in the arithmetic chart.

3) We have defined targets at $240-$250, as well as, near $270.

A trade idea is proposed whereby we open positions into the advance to $240/$270 upon an upside breach of the $230 level in the Bitfinex chart. This represents advance above both an overhead Fib line, and the 20MA.

The long-term trendline from December 2013 is just above that, near $232 (in the Bitfinex chart), but we have to decide whether we enter below this significant level in anticipation that price will cross above it in the current exuberant mood or whether we wait for entry above it – with defined lower risk.

Our stop loss for the trade is at $225 (Bitfinex) or $5 / 30 CNY below your entry level for your particular exchange. It is a hard stop loss – do not move it – and positions are closed if price triggers the stop.

Failure to cross above $230 / $232 in the Bitfinex chart, and within the context of the next 1 or 2 candles in the daily chart, renders the trade idea invalidated.

And some responses, for and against:


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Summary

Bitcoin price is trading sideways just above the support floor that developed during January and February of this year. Price is now drawing close to a descending trendline (from December 2013) that has capped the decline for over a year. It seems that the manner in which the market negotiates the trendline (dashed grey line in the chart above) could have a watershed effect on longterm trend.

Bitfinex orderbook depth and buy/sell volume for the past day and the past hour:

Click here for the CCN interactive price chart.

What do readers think? Please comment below.

This analysis is provided by xbt.social with a 3 hour delay. Read the full analysis here. Not a member? Join now and receive a $29 discount using the code CCN29.

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Disclaimer

The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.

Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Images from Shutterstock.

Last modified: July 12, 2015 18:54 UTC

@venzen

Market analyst and Open source developer with a keen interest in blockchain technology, consensus mechanisms and the decentralizing effect. He has found a solution to the PKI mechanism. Email me to discuss.