Bitcoin price slammed down to support early today before embarking on a persistent rise that is now correcting. A directional move is imminent and today’s Fed rates announcement may be the watershed.
Time of analysis: 15h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Finally, we’re seeing compression in both the 15min and 1hr charts.
The 1-day chart (not shown) is currently trading below its 20MA, but remains high above the critical 200MA.
The combination of bearish bias in the 4hr and 1day charts, and the compression seen in the 1hr and 15min charts implies a move is imminent.
One concern is that the structure of the past week’s price pattern is unusual. It does not look like a typical base of advance. Not that it should – we might be looking at the beginnings of a large and complex price pattern that will become apparent later.
Although the shorter timeframe charts imply advance, we have to consider the alternate outcome of a drop lower. Although price is objectively making higher lows, this condition of occurs prior to a large sell-off.
Bitcoin price is winding into a narrowing range, presumably in preparation for a large trend breakout.
If price breaks to the downside then there are initial targets around $360 and 2300 CNY. Any open long position would have to be closed on the break lower, and position reversed into a short trade (or declining buy-and-hold allocation).
If we get a break to the upside, as generally expected, then this would be an appropriate event to add to an existing long position, or open a long position if you are currently out of the market.
What do readers think? Please comment below.
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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