Bitcoin Price Analysis: Two Paths

Venzen Khaosan @venzen
April 3, 2016

Bitcoin price printed another nondescript feeble advance, after failing to engage in decline. Analysis considers this year’s price action to-date and shows some wave counts of the market’s options.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis

Time of analysis: 14h00 UTC

OKCoin 3-Month Futures 4-Hour Chart

From the analysis pages of, earlier today:

At this stage of correction it is unsure what the market is doing with price. The complexity of the correction probably reflects the indecision in the market:

Large buy orders are inserted just below the level of price more or less permanently in most exchanges. In other words there is massive accumulation happening, but the bulls are hesitant to begin charging. Perhaps there is a coordinated effort by the largest players to prevent these upward spikes from running too far, so that their accumulation can continue nearer $400.

The prospect of decline in the face of a fundamental threat to Bitcoin’s consensus rule remains, but we have to consider that this threat may never have an impact. Either because the market does not perceive the severity of the threat or that its probability of materializing (Classic getting 75% of miners’ vote) is considered low. In this scenario, price is unlikely to sell below $400 and we are at the foothills of a rally.

A wave count in the 4hr chart, above, shows the 3-wave structures that have dominated the chart since late 2015.

The black count annotates a bearish wave count whereby price is currently in a declining wave C that should break below $400 in the coming day or two. Sideways correction may extend before wave C to the downside begins.

The red labels show an alternate count implying imminent advance – the red label “5” is annotated for completeness but its correct placement would be closer to $550.


Bitcoin price continues meandering. The buyers keep buying but price advance is stunted. The market is approaching a breakpoint and the resulting price action will show if the market is heading lower for a bounce prior to a rally, or rallying straight-away prior to a drop.

Bitfinex Depth Chart and Buy/Sell Volume

Click here for the CCN.LA interactive bitcoin-price chart.

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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.

Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Image from Shutterstock.

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