Bitcoin price advance accelerated today and pushed to $400 (Bitstamp) and 2740 CNY. Although a price correction is overdue, the advance is relentless.
Time of analysis: 15h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Pushing above the significant resistance identified in yesterday’s analysis, the price pattern’s wave count has been revised from an ABCDE structure to a simpler ABC correction.
The OKCoin BTC/CNY chart shows the contradictory signals that have characterized the past two weeks:
1) The last wave top has hit multiple Fib extension targets – this implies that a deeper correction (or reversal) should now set in.
2) The fact that the advance has gone parabolic means that it is treacherous to call a top. The top may not be in, although a wave count (annotated i,ii,iii,iv,v) has five waves complete. The bitcoin chart sometimes advances in seven waves.
3) MACD (top) is turning down from its upper Bollinger Band, and both the stochastics and RSI have diverged from the latest price high. These are bearish indications.
If price fails to push to a new high and, instead declines below its 20-period moving average (green), then additional advance is on the cards. There are many bearish indications in the chart, and a deeper correction (or reversal) is now likely, but as long as price remains above the 1hr 20MA, the advance can continue.
Bitcoin price has sprung a surprise mini-rally that increases in pace with each new price wave. Although there are many signals that a reversal is due, it is frustrating that price is not making a tell-tale correction. When it does, the depth of the correction and its wave structure will show whether there will be additional decline or whether this odd advance has further to go.
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