July 26, 2016 6:14 PM UTC

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Last Chance At $640

Bitcoin price decline pulls deeper into the consolidation zone around $650. Below $640 there is a freefall zone to $600, yet a reversal at $640 cannot be ruled out.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis

Time of analysis: 15h00 UTC

Bitstamp 4-Hour Candle Chart

From the analysis pages of, earlier today:

The Bitstamp 4hr candle chart shows a broad overview of the final large wave to the June high, followed by a correction that quickly slammed down to $560. Subsequent price action had been ambiguous while price went through the paces of a correction – rendering the indicators mostly useless and leading the market into two bull traps prior to slumping once more.

On the weekend two declining scenarios were considered:

1) a large decline to $600 or $560, as per the overlapping Fib extension targets and support and resistance at these levels, or

2) a final subwave of decline to the consolidation pivot level at $640 (Bitstamp) from where price should reverse strongly into a new rally.

Today’s wave of decline did indeed target $640 from where it bounced strongly. The second scenario, above, may therefore be unfolding. However, a few technical considerations keeps the outlook bearish:

Yesterday’s daily candle closed below a descending 20-period moving average. Additionally, the 4hr chart (above) is trading below a declining 200-period moving average. The 4hr and 1hr candle charts both have their MACD indicator below its zero line and falling away below its signal line.

Let’s give the market more time to show if the bullish conviction has been awakened or if we follow the bear to the bottom.


Bitcoin price has continued decline below the weekend’s lows. The large timeframe charts remain bearish, but a potential reversal zone lies just below price at $640 (Bitstamp). On balance, it seems that the stochastics (magenta circle, top-right) must first complete their downward oscillation and group at minimum before the bottom of this decline will be in. Primary decline target: $560.

Bitfinex Depth Chart and Buy/Sell Volume

Click here for the CCN.LA interactive bitcoin-price chart.

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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.

Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Image from Shutterstock.

Venzen Khaosan @venzen

Market analyst and Open source developer with a keen interest in blockchain technology, consensus mechanisms and the decentralizing effect. He has found a solution to the PKI mechanism. Email me to discuss.