Bitcoin price sold off from a bull-trap at 09h00 UTC today. The move lower has changed the chart technical bias to bearish across the board. An escape route out of stronger decline still exists, but time is running out.
Time of analysis: 14h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Yesterday’s guestimate of a retracement to the 1-hour 200-period moving average has been exceeded. The market fell straight down into a test of the $400 zone across exchanges and suddenly the chart is back to looking bearish in the larger timeframes: 4-hour and 1-day.
Sunday’s fizzled launch failed to continue higher to resistance. The bulls had been accumulating for over a week and still only achieved a lower high. On the way down, today, there were still large buy orders being placed below the falling knife, but as always we cannot be sure whether those leveraged buy orders are intended to take profit or build long positions.
If the market trades price below $400 then long-term support will have been breached and additional decline will become a certainty. Additionally, the 1-week timeframe will also switch to bearish bias, with its downside support in the low $300s.
Additional decline, today, seems a stretch and the market is more likely to trace out its usual price pattern of a sideways shelf – below the 1-hour 200MA – before another attempt at $400 support occurs.
Holding above $400 is key, so ClassicCoin developers could retain some honor if they did the responsible thing sooner rather than later.
Bitcoin price reversed from a hopeful spike on Sunday, and after holding above $420 for most of Monday, continued lower today. Trading below $400 will open up decline targets at $360 and $320.
In the face of the fundamental insecurity of an ongoing populist threat to Bitcoin’s core value of consensus, the largest speculators will remain out of the market. Retail traders will be left to continue chasing the market around in the 2016 price range, and at the mercy of stop-hunts and similar exchange manipulation that becomes more prevalent in low liquidity.
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Last modified (UTC): March 29, 2016 17:03