Bitcoin price pulled back to support last night and, during Monday's early Asian trading session, advanced to target near $238 (Bitfinex). The move may not be over but it will need to retrace soon - whatever the larger trend may be. This analysis is provided…
Bitcoin price pulled back to support last night and, during Monday’s early Asian trading session, advanced to target near $238 (Bitfinex). The move may not be over but it will need to retrace soon – whatever the larger trend may be.
Time of analysis: 08h46 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Price found support at the intersection of a Fib line and the 4-hour 200MA and is now advancing again. The advance may only be corrective but according to regular/reverse divergence interplay in the 1-hour chart we should see a new high to one of the targets discussed yesterday and indicated with magenta circles in the chart above.
The looming RSI divergence on the next high may see a stronger reversal. Price is also now approaching the upper range of the consildation zone, so the next few days will be critical: if price advances above $250 then it will have broken out of consolidation and may continue trending after testing and finding support at $250.
The future should be viewed not as a fixed outcome that’s destined to happen and capable of being predicted, but as a range of possibilities and, hopefully on the basis of insight into their respective likelihoods, as a probability distribution. – Howard Marks
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Outlander was the early leader, having switched his cash position to BTC near the base of the last wave of advance (not shown in the chart above). Taking position, presumably in response to the chart indicators sell signal at the top of that wave means trading fees have eaten into his profit – but he’ll soon recoup those if he, indeed, positioned short.
Similikity and John Jones are both heavily weighted in BTC and this is not going to benefit them if the present wave corrects deeply – or is the beginning of decline.
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The quote of the day reminds us of the fact that we are in a game of probabilities. The maxim to be conservative in a choppy market and to be aggressive in a trending market should always govern our trading decisions. Before the most recent $5 advance we had no reason to believe we were in an advancing market. Price had been choppy near a market low and additional downside was a risky probability.
Even now, we cannot be certain that we are, in fact, in a trending market, because price has not exited the consolidation zone and the angle of advance is shallower than it had been in any preceding price wave. We therefore continue expecting consolidation – until we see evidence to the contrary. “Patience. Patience. Patience.” as Jesse Livermore says.
There is nothing wrong with sitting out of the market during a consolidation such as we have had. This is how we protect our account funds, rather than throw money after price waves with low probability of success.
Bitstamp orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.
Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Last modified: January 25, 2020 11:05 PM UTC