Bitcoin price has bounced from the recent low and is meandering with no clear direction – now up but with so much zigzagging – and then lower but the sellers don’t have the stones to do what they really want in the chart.
Time of analysis: 13h29 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The 1-day Bitstamp chart shows price trading under a bearish 20MA (green) cross-over below the red 200MA.
An RSI divergence (second from top) on the last low means that price must first push higher into the chart until it forms a reverse divergence to a previous price peak. The result should be a complex correction as circled earlier in the chart’s history.
It is unsure whether the market may not miraculously pull bitcoin out of this price dive and back into advance – stranger things have happened in the past – but for now we expect a corrective advance prior to another declining wave that should pull price into the $100s.
Notice that most of the commodities and indices that plunged on Monday and Tuesday this week, are similarly correcting. Gold, on the other hand, is selling off most of its corrective gains made during the past few weeks. CCN.LA readers can see the latter forecast in this week’s Global Economic Outlook.
Remember that the current global economic environment is very different from that which prevailed in the 1970s and in the years immediately following the 2008 “credit crisis”. During those times, massive quantitative easing (dollar supply inflation) was being unleashed – causing dollar devaluation – and investors purchased gold as an inflation hedge. Hence, the massive gold rallies in those instances.
Bitcoin has no such role, and besides, the Fed is no longer practicing money supply inflation. Instead, the prospect is for money supply deflation and the most valuable asset in such an environment is US dollars – not in the bank – but under your mattress. Gold should continue selling off (along with other commodities) to $450 or lower in the coming years – despite labels like “safe haven” or “value store”.
I’ve found you’ve got to look back at the old things and see them in a new light. – John Coltrane
That Bitcoin will step in to fulfill a safe haven role in the current economic crisis is difficult to say. Bitcoin’s core meaning and social contract has been fundamentally broken by the recent non-consensus hard fork proposal. The price chart may take some time to recover. When the plug pulls on the market, like it did on Monday and Tuesday, and panic selling sets in, investors have no time to weigh their relative options – they simply sell and convert straight to cash as quickly as possible.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
What do readers think? Please comment below.
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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.
Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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