The Bitcoin price drop below $300 during weekend trade has been the cause of much consternation in the Bitcoin community. Disgruntled exchange traders are calling foul; accusations of price manipulation and collusion between exchanges abound; and, some feel that the market has finally gone to…
Weekend analysis showed a wave count of the entire correction since 30 November 2013. The wave analysis is done in the context of the entire Bitcoin price history, and the formation of a corrective triangle in this wave position is auspicious.
Time of analysis: 13h00 UTC
If the current wave is the start of an advance then it should mount the 20MA, react to the 1.618 Fib while maintaining trade above the 20MA and then proceed to the 200MA near $400 with thrusters on full burn. Anything else will give us reason to expect resumption of the decline.
Notice that Sunday’s decline low did not halt at an identifiable Fib level. It may be that a much older Fib enforced it’s presence at $275 or perhaps the roundness of the integer imposed a psychological barrier – either way, two Fib extensions lie at $259 and $205. They would be targets if decline were to return. Also, Sunday’s analysis showed how BTC-e did not reach it’s triangle lower trendline. This raises a question mark over whether or not the decline is truly complete.
While price action remains below $400, we have little reason to believe that the decline won’t resume. Getting above $400 is not going to be a straightforward or straight-lined affair. Once the 200MA is tagged, price should retrace 60% or more of the advance.
For now, we look ahead but with one eye on the rear-view mirror.
Spot Gold dropped to $1183 at the market open and reversed. The low was accompanied by crushing divergence in the MACD indicator (annotated in magenta) as well as in RSI (not annotated).
Gold is also in a longer-term corrective triangle (wave IV). What is concerning – just like with the Bitcoin price – is that the Gold price low did not touch the lower triangle barrier (purple) at $1181. The incomplete low therefore leaves the advance with a question mark over its head. In the medium-term Gold should now complete the last wave correction to near $1340. The upper triangle trendline is visible at the top right of the chart.
As is the case with the Bitcoin price, the Gold price must still confirm advance.
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The writer is fully invested in Bitcoin via BTC-e and Bitfinex. Trade and Investment is risky but not as risky as some other things out there. Take care only to take action in the market when you are 100% sure of the outcome. CCN accepts no liability whatsoever for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.
Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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Last modified: February 13, 2020 3:45 PM UTC