The bitcoin price is holding above $4,000, today’s fractional declines notwithstanding, and the bullish price predictions are back. Michael Novogratz of crypto merchant bank Galaxy Digital is the latest voice to come out of crypto hibernation and tell it as he sees it. Novogratz is calling the market bottom days after Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee issued his latest bullish outlook for the BTC price.
Novogratz’s remarks were in response to Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, who posted a poll on Twitter asking followers whether we’re in a bull or bear market. Out of nearly 15,000 votes so far, the needle is cautiously leaning toward a bear market, which has captured two-thirds of the vote. Novogratz disrupted the poll, pointing to a “sideways market” that has found a base and boldly predicting: “Next move higher.”
Novogratz falls short of saying when that will be, however, while Fundstrat’s Lee appears to be focused on the next five- to six-month period. The experts have picked a good time to call a base, with the BTC price managing to hold $4,000 (on CoinMarketCap) and posting gains of approximately 5% year-to-date. The thing to note about the recent price increase is trading volume, which surpassed $11 billion in recent days for the first time in nearly a year.
Nonetheless, last year’s bitcoin price prediction misses are not too far in the rearview mirror. While crypto investors might want to believe the bullish forecasts, the sting of unmet expectations has created skepticism. The former hedge fund trader’s call of the bottom was met with mixed reviews on Twitter, with one follower saying he loved Novogratz’s optimism and another reminding him of his track record.
It wasn’t too long ago that Novogratz was forecasting bitcoin $40,000 in 2018. He soon revised those forecasts when it became clear that the bears were more stubborn than originally thought. Novogratz is cited in CNBC as revising his forecast, saying it would take the first half of 2019 for the bitcoin price to revisit $10,000. He also previously called a market bottom in September 2018, when the bitcoin price was hovering in the $6,000-$7,000 range. If only.
Novogratz is banking on institutional capital fueling bitcoin’s move to the next level, having previously suggested that they will catch the same FOMO (fear of missing out) that motivated retail investors in the last bull run. Fidelity Digital Asset Services is live and big investors are slowly but surely coming off the sidelines.
Institutions aren’t in a rush because they are in crypto for the long-haul. Instead of being spooked by prices, they want to ensure that they don’t enter prematurely. If they’re listening to Novogratz, now might be as good a time as any. In the meantime, whether or not his call for a bottom proves true, crypto has found a friend in Novogratz through and through.
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