Listen, noob. A $200 price retracing is far from the end of a bear market for Bitcoin. Comparing historical charts, there are times in recent memory where we’d call that “stability.” In a recent newsletter by eToro’s Mati Greenspan, the veteran analyst points out that China was on holiday recently. Coming back to the crypto markets, they seem to be in a “buying mood.”
“[I]n order to say definitively that the bear market is over, we would need a strong break above the key psychological barrier of $5,000. In any case, even though the technical indicators remain bearish, the fundamentals continue to grow stronger. Volume across crypto exchanges over the last 24 hours have reached a fresh high of $25 billion on Friday and have sustained well above the baseline of $15 billion since.”
There is also the issue of a lot of new people entering the space. This is undeniable given the way the market has gone up overall. The money isn’t exiting other cryptos and injecting into Bitcoin or Litecoin. Instead, it’s coming in through the main entrance, fiat.
Every Bitcoin price rise has a thousand bots ready to sell. So sustained bull runs are notable by the way up, somewhat down, way up pattern we often see. Bitcoin bear markets are far less predictable. If you truly believe we’re in a bull run already, it wouldn’t be advisable to have any longs out beyond $4,000 for awhile yet.
Another firm, BitOoda, sent out a missive today which still predicts a drop to $2,000 or lower. They’re using the wisdom of other asset markets, like silver, to inform their predictions.
“Ever since the price peak we have had lower highs and lower lows, which is a signature of a bear market. From the silver analog we expect the final wave of desperation to take us to the mid-to-high $2000’s before the market starts the recovery. We could be wrong, of course, and until the 2018 low is taken out (it has not been revisited yet), there is a possibility that the selloff is done.”
The newsletter also talks about the current non-liquid nature of crypto markets right now. To whit:
“As a result, prices stay in a tight range for days, only to gap 200-300 points in either direction. That’s exactly what one would expect when an entity needs to either buy or sell any significant volume in a thinly-traded marketplace.”
The above reminds us of the market a few years ago, rather than a 15 months ago.
Whether the bottom is in for Bitcoin is a question requiring a crystal ball. We’d need to know what will happen 30 and 60 days from now. A Bitcoin ETF is likely to bring a ton of new money into the market, but where will the price of Bitcoin stand by that point? Wherever it is, many expect to see a true Bitcoin bull run – to the tune of 1,000-percents gains – after that point.
Featured Image from Shutterstock. Price Charts from TradingView.
Last modified: March 4, 2021 2:53 PM