Apple stock bled out on Monday afternoon as Tim Cook revealed his long-awaited Netflix rival, Apple TV+.
Traders were immediately underwhelmed by the lack of details and the stock ended the day 1.2 percent lower.
But don’t believe the hype. Wall Street analysts have weighed in since the announcement and most still think Apple stock is a screaming buy.
At least seven analysts re-affirmed their “buy rating” on Apple shares after the big reveal. The most optimistic of which (Samik Chatterjee at JP Morgan) put a $228 price target on the stock – a 21 percent upside from yesterday’s closing price.
The $228 price target would take Apple stock within touching distance of its all-time high. Chatterjee did show concern for Apple’s lack of clarity on its streaming service. But said Apple’s new credit card and its “Arcade” gaming service gives it a new edge.
One of the most damning assessments for Netflix came from analysts at Needham. Laura Martin said:
“NFLX has an inferior competitive position to AAPL over time.”
She says Apple will have an easy time converting users while Netflix is left spending a fortune on customer acquisition:
“AAPL has zero consumer acquisition costs since it will first target its captive 900mm global unique users, which are the wealthiest consumers in the world.”
If you look back at previous launch events, you’ll see a pattern in Apple stock. It almost always falls on the day of the announcement and for the following week. But in the medium-term, there’s a strong recovery.
On average, Apple stock rebounds 10.7 percent in the three months following major product launches.
Traders were underwhelmed by the lack of details in the Apple TV+ announcement. We saw plenty of celebrities including Oprah, Jason Momoa, and Steven Spielberg outline their vision for Apple TV+, but no concrete facts.
No price indication, no launch date, no timeline, no details on how it will integrate other services like HBO.
More than that, traders wanted a “wow” moment. As CNBC’s Jim Cramer said:
“The stock rolled over because these are all, I guess, pedestrian applications… [Traders] want Apple to change the world.”
“We do not believe today’s announcement is a major catalyst for the shares as consumers are slow to change their behavior.”
Meanwhile, short interest in Apple stock is at a three-year high after climbing 143 percent. More and more traders are now betting against the shares.
The days of big, sexy Apple product launches are coming to an end. Apple is pivoting towards a reliable ecosystem of deeply integrated services. It might not impress traders right now, but the world’s largest company is building an unstoppable long-term strategy.
Last modified: July 2, 2020 8:13 PM UTC