Bitcoin Price – How Low Can You Go?

Journalist:
Venzen Khaosan @venzen
January 16, 2016

Bitcoin price declined an additional $30 today and is currently being supported at $357.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis

Time of analysis: 15h00 UTC

Bitfinex 4-Hour Chart

From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:

Price has found support at a Fib line originating at the low of 1 June 2015.

Additionally, 4-hour RSI shows a well-defined five wave channel to today’s low. According to Elliott wave principle, the decline should now be complete, but the Bitcoin price chart regularly forms waves consisting of seven subwaves, so there is no reason to call the bottom just yet.

Note that RSI (panel immediately above price) has reverse diverged to the closing low of 11 November 2015 (magenta arrow) and that MACD (top panel) confirms this reverse divergence with a double bottom (not annotated).

The stocahstics (second from top) have spent several days at their lower extreme. The oversold indicator conditions could see a reversal from current levels. Confirmation of a move higher will occur when MACD advances above its signal line and RSI breaks out of the decline channel (blue).

If an additional low prints in the coming hours, and RSI only indicates a higher low (i.e. diverges from price) then a reversal to the upside seems inevitable. However, be cautious to trade the initial push higher, since it may turn out to merely be a correction prior to more decline.

Summary

Price has completed a third large corrective low to below $400. The longer-term 4-hour chart indicators are oversold and the corrective price pattern may be nearing completion – if not already complete. What we want to see in the chart, is a series of higher highs and higher lows, before we look to position long.

Bitfinex Depth Chart and Buy/Sell Volume

Click here for the CCN.LA interactive bitcoin price chart.

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Disclaimer

The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.

Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Image from Shutterstock.

Venzen Khaosan @venzen

Market analyst and Open source developer with a keen interest in blockchain technology, consensus mechanisms and the decentralizing effect. He has found a solution to the PKI mechanism. Email me to discuss.