Bitcoin price has moved strongly on the first day of the new year, and the increased volatility may herald large price distances during 2016.
Time of analysis: 16h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
A fifth wave of advance, from yesterday’s low, pushed higher into strong divergence. The market’s initial reaction was to sell-off from the new local high.
The 1hr chart has an apparent MA buy signal but it is not yet well-formed, so confidence in the push higher requires additional confirmation.
A bullish confirmation of advance will occur when the 1hr 20MA (green) crosses above the 1hr 200MA (red). Once this MA configuration occurs we also want to see price advance higher with conviction – to negate the price reversal pattern circled in blue.
A longer-term analysis follows in the coming days.
During price corrections the market tends to reverse price direction regularly, since the psychology of correction is irrational. An exuberant new year buying frenzy fizzled out earlier today, but the market is clearly in a bullish mood, with participants buying even as price made lower lows during the past few hours. To escape the pull of $400 and 2600 CNY, we want to see the bullish energy express itself as a series of higher highs in the chart.
After the directionless energy has expended itself a clear signal should form.
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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