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$5,000: Why Amazon Stock is Primed for a Parabolic 175% Rally

Last Updated June 14, 2024 8:53 AM
Stephen Samuels
Last Updated June 14, 2024 8:53 AM

One equities analyst is going all out on his bullish thoughts about Amazon stock (NASDAQ: AMZN), saying the company has the makings of what it takes to command $5,000 a share by 2025. That would put the company’s valuation at $2.5 trillion. It would also make it the first ever to reach that level, according to Doug Kass, president of Seabreeze Partners Management.

He sent out an email to his firm’s clients with his opinions.

Kass and Seabreeze Partners aren’t the only ones who are bullish on Amazon, but they are in a class by themselves with the mammoth $5,000 target for the Jeff Bezos-led giant.

Forget $1 Trillion; Amazon’s on Track to Almost Triple That

In his note, which was highlighted by MarketWatch , Kass said AMZN shares could hit $3,000 by 2021, and then $5,000 by 2025. Those predictions mark gains of 63% and 172%, respectively, from Friday’s close at $1,837.28.

amazon stock price, NASDAQ:AMZN
Amazon stock has roared back in early 2019, but Doug Kass says AMZN is only getting started. | Source: Yahoo Finance

In the note, Kass gushed:

“In the annals of U.S. corporate history there is no company that has as large and lengthy runway of opportunity as Amazon.com.”

The Amazon bull made the wild prediction that Amazon’s earnings per share (EPS) will beat forecasts by 10% or more for 2019, 2020, and 2021. He was especially happy about the company’s last forecast, which he says will mark the “biggest annual gain relative to expectations.”

Amazon’s EPS growth rate is 125.5%.

He’s also a big bull here because he thinks Wall Street hasn’t really “embraced and exploited” the company like its peers, MarketWatch reported.

Herd of Bullish Analysts Pound the Table on Amazon

According to TheStreet , 45 Wall Street analysts have assigned either “buy” or “overweight” ratings on Amazon.

Here’s a look at several other bullish targets (data from Finviz).

Apr-01-19 Reiterated Oppenheimer Outperform $1975 → $2085
Mar-20-19 Initiated Evercore ISI Outperform $1965
Mar-15-19 Upgrade KeyBanc Capital Markets Sector Weight → Overweight $2100

While other analysts are bullish on Amazon, too, they are not to the extent of Kass’ optimism.

KeyBanc analyst Edward Yruma has weighed in  on AMZN as well, saying its shares have room to run to $2,100. In a research note, he wrote:

“Amazon is pivoting to a company with accelerating profitability. In addition to $5 billion in incremental retail profitability, growth and margins remain very strong in the combined (Amazon Web Services) and advertising businesses. Amazon is (also) taking a number of operational moves to improve profitability in core retail, which could drive mid-term earnings above the current consensus view.”

Analysts like Yruma pay particular attention to a company’s margins. Yruma is impressed that Amazon is working to improve its retail margins, including moves to close its 87 pop-up stores and its mid-market grocery store business.

AWS, as well as Amazon’s advertising businesses, are poised to reap profits in the near term, according to Yruma. The two of them could rake it $100 billion in sales by 2022.

According to StockInvest, Amazon is expected to rise by 9.06%  during the next three months. It sees a 90% probability that it will hold between $1,819.70 and $2,011.4 over this period.

Technical Analysis Adds to AMZN’s Bull Case

Technical analysis of Amazon’s stock shows that it is poised for a breakout. TheStreet points out  that Amazon looks bullish now that it has punched through resistance near $1,709 to soar more than $100 higher.

As they predicted before the move:

“Amazon could be poised for a large breakout should it power over these levels. While a $24 rally seems like a big move, note that that’s less than 1% from current levels. A 1% or 2% move from Amazon — far from unheard of for this name — could unleash a flurry of buyers who have been waiting for this stock to regain some mojo.”