Home / Markets News & Opinions / 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield Will Crash to 1%, UBS Warns

10-Year Treasury Bond Yield Will Crash to 1%, UBS Warns

Last Updated September 23, 2020 12:59 PM
Sam Bourgi
Last Updated September 23, 2020 12:59 PM

Conditions are favorable for another steep fall in the U.S. Treasury bond yield curve, says UBS, Switzerland’s largest financial institution.

In revised projections published Wednesday, the bank identified U.S.-China trade tensions and their impact on economic growth as the chief catalyst for the continued drop off in yields.

UBS Cuts Forecast on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield

federal reserve chair jerome powell, dow jones industrial average
How central banks respond to slowing economic growth will have a direct impact on the bond markets, says UBS. | Source: REUTERS / Erin Scott

Despite falling to more than three-year lows, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield still has a long way to go before hitting bottom. UBS says  the government-backed Treasury yield could reach 1% by the end of 2019. Such a move would be accompanied by a steep rise in bond prices, which track inversely with yields.

The 10-year Treasury yield reached a session low of 1.45% on Wednesday, according to CNBC.

With the global economy being dragged down by U.S.-China trade tensions, central banks are formulating a desperate response to stave off stagnation. The Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia and Reserve Bank of New Zealand have slashed interest rates for the first time in years. Others, including the European Central Bank, are planning new stimulus packages imminently.

Bond Yield Watch

U.S. government debt yields rose in overnight trading Wednesday after Hong Kong’s chief executive said she would formally withdraw an extradition bill that sparked a monthslong public protest in the Special Administrative Region.

In a recorded address, Carrie Lam pledged  to increase dialogue with the community and pursue an independent review of the political climate in Hong Kong. The move satisfies one of five demands from the opposition movement, which has been protesting the bill for three months.

Treasury bond yield spreads
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity. | Source: St. Louis Fed

The 2-year yield swung back below the 10-year yield on Wednesday, just one day after settling on par. The 2-year Treasury yield traded within a range of 1.43% to 1.47%.

Last month, yields on the 2-year and 10-year yields inverted for the first time since before the financial crisis, triggering recession alarms.